The Honolulu Blueprint: 4 keys to a Lions victory over the Bucs

For the second week in a row, the Detroit Lions are squaring off against a team they faced—and beat—in last year’s NFL Playoffs. After beating the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1, the Lions will take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 2 of the 2024 regular season.

“Really good opponent coming in here again,” coach Dan Campbell said on Wednesday. “Third time in two years, so certainly we both have familiarity with each other, personnel-wise. Have a lot of respect for Coach [Todd] Bowles and what he’s done out there, really his whole career. It’s a tough, physical team, they’re disciplined, aggressive, particularly defensively.”

Campbell and Bowles have a long history together. In 2005, Bowles was the Cowboys’ secondary coach when Campbell was a tight end on the active roster. Additionally, Bowles coached Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn for two seasons (2005-06) in Dallas, as well.

Then, the pair met up again in 2010, when Bowles was assistant head coach and secondary coach of the Dolphins just as Campbell got his start as a coaching intern. In 2011, Campbell was promoted to tight ends coach, while Bowles took over interim head coaching duties after Tony Sparano was fired. When Adam Gase was fired in 2015, Campbell followed in Bowles’ footsteps as the Dolphins’ interim head coach.

The Lions won both their matchups with the Bucs last season, but if they want to get a third win in a row, they’ll need to follow the keys to victory laid out in this week’s Honolulu Blueprint.

Bucs base schemes

Offense: Another descendant of Sean McVay’s West Coast offense

2023 offensive coordinator Dave Canales accepted the head coaching job with the Carolina Panthers this offseason, and the Bucs acquired Liam Coen to fill the void. Another disciple of the Sean McVay coaching tree, Coen began his NFL coaching career with the Rams in 2018 as an assistant wide receivers coach before shifting to assistant quarterbacks coach in 2020.

In 2021, Coen accepted a job as the University of Kentucky’s offensive coordinator, then returned to the Rams in 2022 to be their offensive coordinator. After the Rams went 5-12 (with Matthew Stafford missing half the season due to injury), Coen was let go and he returned to Kentucky as their OC once again. In 2024, the Bucs were looking for a coordinator to take over for Canales (another McVay disciple) who would keep a similar scheme with a few new wrinkles added in.

“What they’re doing offensively is a lot of, really what we kind of saw last week (against the Rams),” Campbell noted.

Mayfield actually had a brief stint with the Rams in 2022—when Coen was their OC—so there is some familiarity with terminology that has helped the transition.

“It’s only been one game, but I do feel an improved offense when I watch last week’s game,” Campbell continued. “I think Coen’s doing a good job over there […] They’ve got a little bit of everything and then when you have Baker [Mayfield] who can facilitate it and run the show, it makes for a pretty efficient offense. This is going to be a good test for us. It’s going to be a really good test.”

Because this is a variation of McVay’s West Coast scheme, there are a lot of similarities fans will recognize, such as 11 personnel, pre-snap motion, play-action, and tight/bunch formations for easier releases.

There are some notable differences though. Canales didn’t use as much pre-snap motion as McVay—only around 40%—while Coen increased that to 61% in Week 1, much closer to the 69% McVay used against the Lions last Sunday.

Coen is also more committed to the run than Canales and is not as quick to move away from it. In last year’s Honolulu Blueprints for the Lions-Bucs matchups, my No. 1 Key was to limit the Bucs’ rushing success early, as Canales would abandon the run, and in turn, make the offense one-dimensional. Coen appears willing to stick things out.

Another key difference is Coen lets Mayfield have more freedom at the line, allowing him to check into better looks at his discretion. That flexibility showed up last week against the Commanders when Mayfield checked into run plays that resulted in big plays.

Defense

Todd Bowles’ defense features a 2-4-5 out of a 34 base:

A recap of Todd Bowles’ defense from last year’s Honolulu Blueprints:

“While the Bucs still lean on 34 concepts—like standup pass rushing outside linebackers—they only use a true 34 base personnel on a third of their defensive snaps, instead spending the majority of their time in subpackage looks, and adjusting to a 2-4-5 scheme.

“The Bucs have always been a heavy blitzing defense under Bowles and this year (2023) is no different, as they’re currently blitzing on 39% of their defensive snaps (finished season at 40.1%), fourth most in the NFL. But a new wrinkle for the Bucs this season is their ability to successfully drop edge rushers Joe Tyron-Shoyinka or Shaquil Barrett (retired in 2024) into coverage, allowing them to blitz off-the-ball linebacker(s) […] and in turn, causing problems for offensive lines in picking up their blocking assignments.

While the Bucs’ defense hasn’t changed much, the Lions are still keenly aware of the problems it causes.

“Well, this defense is, it’s an issue,” Campbell said. “It’s always been an issue. I mean they give you multiple fronts, multiple pressures, they disguise well, and so that in itself is always a headache. Vita Vea in the middle, these two edge rushers here are pretty good. They’ve grown, gotten better. Lavonte David in the middle,— with their personnel — I know they’re a little banged up, but we’ll see how all that stuff works out. They’re still going to have plenty of ammo over there, defensively.”

The Bucs are dealing with quite a few injuries early on in the season, which leads up to our first key to victory.

Key 1: Attack an injured Bucs secondary

The Bucs defense is working through an injury bug. Star defensive tackle Calijah Kancey was injured late last week, missed last week’s game, has not practiced all week, and could miss this game. All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield was injured in Week 1 and is expected to miss multiple weeks. Starting corner Zyon McCollum is working his way through concussion protocol (though he looks on track to play). Reserve corner Bryce Hall injured his ankle and is expected to miss the remainder of the season. Reserve corner Josh Hayes injured his ankle and is in a walking boot.

“I know they’ve got some injuries over there, but they also have the similar coaching staff that they’ve had, so a lot of the scheme will be similar,” Lions quarterback Jared Goff said of the Bucs defense. “But I’m sure they’ll have something for us that’s different and certainly without Winfield, they’ve got to change some things that they do a little bit.”

How they shuffle the deck in the secondary starts with McCollum clearing the NFL’s concussion protocol. If he clears protocols, the Bucs could have both their starting outside cornerbacks available this week. That being said, as Goff pointed out, they’ll need some shuffling on the inside, with Winfield out. Look for starting safety/nickel Christian Izien to move to free safety, and be replaced by rookie Tykee Smith in the slot. Smith also showed up on the injury report this week with an illness, so his availability will be worth monitoring. When the dust settles, with both of their top depth options likely out, that leaves UDFA rookie Tyrek Funderburk and newly signed Keenon Isaac as their only options for cornerback depth on the outside and in the slot.

“We’ll see who they have available here on Sunday,” Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson noted on Thursday. “But more than anything, we have to handle all the variety of looks that they can present to us, first and second down, and third down,”

Historically, Lions quarterback Jared Goff has had success against Bowles schemes. As you can see in the tweet below from Greg Auman—who is currently with FOX Sports but has covered the Bucs for the last decade—his statistics are very impressive:

Last season, Goff threw for 353 passing yards in their regular season matchup, but only 287 passing yards in the playoffs, as things tightened up. Still, both those outputs are above the 269 passing yards average he had during the regular season last year.

One of the main reasons Goff found such success is that he was only pressured 13 times and was only hit three times in each of their 2023 matchups against the Bucs.

In short: if the Lions’ offensive line can keep Goff clean, he’s shown that he can play above his average against the Bucs’ scheme.

Key 2: Stay balanced to slow down the pass rush

“He’s gotten me too, though,” Goff said of the Bowles/Bucs’ blitzing packages. “We were able to play pretty well the last two times, but I’ve played him a handful of times in my career, he’s gotten me too. He’s a great coach, he’ll have some good blitzes dialed up, I’m sure they will, they’re a pressure team, and we’ll be ready to handle them.”

Last week against the Commanders, the Bucs produced 18 pressures, resulting in two sacks. One sack as from their reserve MIKE SirVocea Dennis, the other from EDGE Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, while EDGE Yaya Diaby secured five pressures. Highly touted second-round rookie Chris Braswell will be looking for his first NFL pressure after being blanked in Week 1.

The Lions’ offensive line uncharacteristically gave up 10 pressures against the Rams, but will be looking to reduce that number in Week 2, assuming Penei Sewell is healthy enough to play—he’s missed two practices but insists that he’s “good” in the locker room.

One of the ways the Lions can and have historically reduced pressure is by maintaining a balanced offensive attack and adjusting to the looks the defense is giving them.

“That’s really what we wanted to be is the multiplicity,” Johnson said of his offense. “It starts with our weapons. We have speed on the perimeter, we have speed from the backfield, super athletic tight end that can make plays, and so when you combine that with an offensive line that can be dominant, play in and play out, it’s a dangerous combination and we can morph to whatever the defense gives us.

“So, if they want to sell out and stop the run, we feel very confident in throwing the football. If they want to play two-high looks and stop our speed down the field, we feel pretty good about being able to run the ball against that. We’ll continue to morph each week with what we’re expecting and adjusting in-game with what defenses are giving us.”

Key 3: Take advantage of Carlton Davis’ knowledge of Bucs WRs

The first time the Lions faced off against the Bucs last year, Mayfield had his worst statistical performance of the season, and Evans and Godwin were held in check, only producing 126 yards combined. But in the playoffs, Evans broke out for 147 yards (on eight receptions), while Godwin secured another 40 yards.

But the Lions have invested massive amounts of capital into their secondary, including acquiring Carlton Davis from the Bucs in an offseason trade. His familiarity with the Bucs duo should give him an advantage when covering his man.

“They kind of know each other’s tricks of the trade,” Campbell said of Davis’ knowing the tendencies of the Bucs wide receivers. “So, it ought to be a pretty good battle whenever they’re on each other. But that helps, and certainly, we’ll pick his brain a little bit as we go here, as to just different thoughts and things.”

The Lions have indeed followed through on their plan to tap into Davis as a resource, and the results are already paying off, according to defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn.

“Normally a quiet guy, but he gave the best introduction to those receivers that I’ve ever heard a DB talk ever in my coaching career, and that’s saying a lot,” Glenn said of Davis. “The way he articulated how these guys are, how they act, how they operate, was pretty amazing yesterday. I wish I actually taped that just for my own, just so I can show other players like, ‘This is how you do it.’ But he does have a little something in him, and he’s not going to show that, that’s just who he is, but you can tell that it’s Bucs week for him.”

While the Bucs’ receivers will also have the same knowledge to apply back to Davis’ game, the majority of the Lions’ remaining secondary are new. Therefore, they’ll be strapped with the information Davis supplied them, while the Bucs will be playing catch up in their evaluations and only able to use game tape from Week 1 to make their assessments.

If the Lions can properly use Davis’ knowledge, it could be a big advantage.

Key 4: Keep up the pressure, against the pass and the run

Last week, against the Rams’ reserve offensive tackles, the Lions’ defensive front recorded 27 pressures, with Aidan Hutchinson accounting for 11 on his own. Hutchinson’s pass rush win rate was an astounding 47.7% of pass rush plays.

The Bucs have an improved offensive line that only allowed a total of eight pressures to the Commanders last week. But they’re young at center (2024 first-round pick Graham Barton is shifting from college tackle to center in the NFL) and right guard (Cody Mauch, a 2023 second-round pick), while right tackle Luke Goedeke is in the league’s concussion protocol and missed practice on Thursday, which is an indicator he may not be available this weekend.

With Goedeke potentially out, the Bucs plan to use Justin Skule at right tackle if needed. Skule is a 50-game veteran with 12 starts under his belt, though the most recent start was in 2020 and he’s never played right tackle in an NFL game. To help their tackles deal with Hutchinson, Coen told the Tampa Bay media on Thursday that they plan on chipping him whenever possible.

While Davenport has yet to practice this week, he did play through his injury last game, so we’ll have to wait and see about his availability. If he can’t go, look for Derrick Barnes to get more reps at SAM—like he did in their playoff matchup—along with spell snaps from Josh Paschal and Levi Onwuzurike opposite Hutchinson.

The biggest impact could come on the interior, where the return of DJ Reader, combined with the rising star of Alim McNeill could give the Lions an interior presence they’ve been waiting three seasons for. Reader and McNeill will not only help the edge rushers get singled up, but they’re dominating run defenders who can make it difficult for teams to get any traction going on the ground.

For a Bucs team that is committed to the run, but still trying to find its rhythm, the Lions’ attention to stopping the run game will try and make the Bucs offense one-dimensional.