Lions vs. Cardinals preview, prediction: On Paper

The Detroit Lions are in need of a rebound this week, as they head down to Arizona for their first road game of the season. The Arizona Cardinals appear to be a much tougher out than they were last year, as they jumped out to 17-3 lead over the Bills before losing, then demolished the Rams last week to the tune of 41-10.

But the Lions haven’t tallied back-to-back losses since October of 2022. Can they avoid it again this week?

Our Lions vs. Cardinals preview and prediction will tell the tale.

It’s Week 3, On Paper.

Note: This is the last week I’ll be using any 2023 data. Starting Week 4, it’s all about 2024.

Lions pass offense (7th) vs. Cardinals pass defense (31st)

2024 DVOA numbers: Lions (26th) vs. Cardinals (24th)

After posting top-10 numbers in nearly every category last year, the Lions passing offense is off to an extremely slow start. I examined this earlier in the week, and the problem seemed to be two-fold. For one, Detroit’s interior offensive line is giving up more pressure than normal. Secondly, Jared Goff has been extremely uncharacteristically bad when NOT UNDER PRESSURE. Here are his splits from last year to this year with a clean pocket:

Via PFF:

Last year: 28 TDs, 3 INTs, 116.1 passer rating, 0.8% turnover worthy plays, 94.5 PFF grade
This year: 0 TD, 1 INT, 74.0 passer rating, 4.8% turnover worthy plays, 49.0 PFF grade

Via NFL Pro:

Last year: +2.7% CPOE (8th), +0.31 EPA per dropback (4th)
This year: -6.5% CPOE (23rd), -0.06 EPA per dropback (27th)

With sample sizes so low at this point, it’s hard to take this drastic turn of events too heavily. For most of his career, Goff has been lethal with a clean pocket, and I’m not ready to believe he’s suddenly regressed to the exact opposite end of the spectrum.

That said, the statistics through two games are worrisome:

• 25th in dropback EPA
• 22nd in success rate
• 23rd in yards per attempt
• 25th in passer rating

I still have confidence this will be a top-10 offense again, but they’re very clearly not playing like it right now.

The good news is that the Cardinals’ passing defense was not good last year, and they’re not off to a great start in 2024, either. It’s hard to take anything from the Rams game considering how quickly it got out of hand, but Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense had their way with the Cardinals’ defense in Week 1. He went 18-of-23 for 232 yards, 10.1 yards per attempt, and a 137.7 passer rating.

Through two weeks, the Cardinals pass defense ranks:

• 20th in dropback EPA
• 32nd in success rate
• 31st in yards per attempt
• 28th in passer rating

Particularly troubling for the Cardinals is their relative lack of pass rush. They rank 28th in ESPN’s pass rush win rate (28th last year, too) and 21st in PFF pass rush grade (29th last year).

Their coverage isn’t much better, either. They rank 31st in team PFF coverage grade, and per NFL Pro, they average the highest yards in separation per passing target (4.8 yards, average is around 3.5).

All is to say, Arizona’s pass defense may be slightly improved from last year, but it’s still not great.

Player to watch: Amon-Ra St. Brown. While the Cardinals haven’t been very efficient stopping the pass, they do tend to keep everything in front of them. That leaves the middle of the field vulnerable. Just look at Josh Allen’s chart against this Cardinals defense in Week 1.

That is pure St. Brown territory.

Advantage: Lions +1.5. I could look foolish here, but I just don’t believe the Lions’ slow start passing the ball will stick. It runs counter to every statistical trend we’ve seen over the past 2.5 years with this offense, so I’m chalking it up as two early outliers. This isn’t a good Cards pass defense, so we’ll know if Detroit struggles here, there are some serious problems to work out.

Lions run offense (4th) vs. Cardinals run defense (30th)

2024 DVOA numbers: Lions (2nd) vs. Cardinals (4th)

The Lions have picked up where they left off: as one of the best rushing attacks in football. While it may not have seemed like they were as efficient as possible over the first two weeks of the season, the advanced statistics say otherwise. Per NFL Pro, the Lions rank second in rushing EPA and first in success rate.

What makes them particularly dangerous is their ability to employ two different running backs who can beat you in several ways. In Week 1, David Montgomery’s bruising rushing style tore through a tired Rams defense. In Week 2, Jahmyr Gibbs’ explosiveness shined. Both backs currently rank in the top six in rush EPA (Montgomery fourth, Gibbs sixth), and both are able to produce yards after contact, with Gibbs currently ranked 8th in that metric, and Montgomery 24th.

Detroit’s run blocking has taken a small step back, ranking 11th in PFF grade (second last year), and 21st in ESPN’s run block win rate (13th last year). Still, I think this is an elite unit.

After a strong start to the season, the Cardinals run defense was a disaster toward the end of last year. And if you take a closer look at the chart, you’ll see that they gave up at least 90 rushing yards in every single game last year, with opponents averaging at least 4.4 YPC in 10 of 17 games.

However, this year has been a completely different story. They rank fourth in yards per carry (3.5), ninth in rushing yards allowed (91.5), 12th in rush EPA, but 25th in success rate, suggesting that there’s something else going on here.

It’s worth noting that in both games this season, the Cardinals have jumped out to early leads. That could have changed how offenses play against them, leaning heavier on the passing attack to get out of the hole.

That said, I do believe this run defense is better than it was last year, but—like with the Lions passing offense—I tend to reject data this early in the season that suggests a 180-degree turnaround. Is this an improved defense? Yes. Will it be a top-10 run defense? It seems very unlikely.

Player to watch: Budda Baker. You didn’t think I was going to forget him, right? Is it odd to include a safety in the run defense section? Maybe. But Baker is that much of a menace all over the field. His five run stops (per PFF) are tied for first in the league—just ahead of Brian Branch’s four—and he scored a 90.6 run defense grade last week against the Rams, best of the week among safeties.

Advantage: Lions +2. This is almost the reverse of the first matchup. I’m pretty confident about the Lions, whereas I’m not so sure what to make of the Cardinals’ performance thus far. The only reason I’m giving the Lions a slightly bigger advantage here is because I think they’re going to run the ball early and often with this team, and then hit them with some play-action later.

Cardinals pass offense (23rd) vs. Lions pass defense (16th)

2024 DVOA numbers: Cardinals (3rd) vs. Lions (14th)

*When Kyler Murray returned to the lineup.

While Kyler Murray made a strong statement last week with a perfect passer rating against the Rams, this chart shows that the progress he was making can be traced back to late last year. He’s slowly been recapturing his magic, and with a full offseason unencumbered by injuries, Murray is off to a hot start to 2024.

Arizona currently ranks:

• 3rd in dropback EPA
• 4th in success rate
• 7th in yards per attempt
• 4th in passer rating

Arizona doesn’t throw it a ton (24th in passing attempts), but when they do, they are one of the most efficient offenses in the league.

As far as weapons, there are two main players to worry about: rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. and third-year tight end Trey McBride. Those two account for 54% of the team’s passing yards and exactly 50% of the team’s targets.

In terms of pass protection, they’ve been average. Arizona ranks 18th in pass block win rate and seventh in PFF grade. But here’s the good news: right tackle Kelvin Beachum is likely their weak link. He’s allowed both the most pressure (four) and sacks (two) on the team. He’s also dealing with a hamstring injury now, so I’m sure Aidan Hutchinson is waiting.

Detroit’s pass defense wasn’t good last year, but they did rank around average in some advanced metrics due to some late disruption statistics. By the end of the year, defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn figured out ways to create sacks and turnovers, and that much has carried over to 2024. The Lions are ranked t-fifth with seven sacks and their two interceptions are tied for eighth most.

Still, though, there are some troubling numbers. Let’s go back to the main four we’ve been using all preview:

• 23rd in dropback EPA
• 19th in success rate
• 22nd in yards per attempt
• 17th in passer rating

There are still a lot of questions with Detroit’s outside cornerback room, as Terrion Arnold and Carlton Davis aren’t off to the hottest of starts. Per PFF, the duo has allowed 24 catches on 31 attempts for 300 yards, two touchdowns, and a 128.4 passer rating. That said, the duo of safeties behind them—Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch—have been much more stout, allowing just 8-of-14 catches for 79 yards, one interception, and four pass breakups.

Detroit has also been able to pressure the quarterback consistently. They actually have the highest team pass rushing grade per PFF(!!!!) and rank seventh in ESPN’s pass rush win rate.

Player to watch: Hutchinson. The man had 4.5 sacks last week against a backup right tackle, and while Beachum will be the best backup Hutchinson has faced, his hamstring injury could be a huge weakness for the Cardinals. If he can’t go, Arizona would have to employ Jackson Barton, a five-year vet who has exactly zero starts and 13 offensive snaps in his career.

Advantage: Cardinals +1. I could see a week very similar to last week against the Buccaneers. Baker Mayfield didn’t kill the Lions with his arm, but he was quite efficient. The key for Detroit will be producing as many negative plays in the passing game as they did last week. It’ll be hard to bring down Murray five times like they did with Mayfield, but if they can get an interception or two, it would likely even this matchup. While the Cardinals clearly have the edge, I can’t give them a huge advantage, because Murray hasn’t thrown for 300 yards since 2022 and he’s only done it twice in his last 24 starts.

Cardinals run offense (9th) vs. Lions run defense (1st)

2024 DVOA numbers: Cardinals (22nd) vs. Lions (9th)

Last year, the Cardinals produced a top-10 rushing attack, and despite its low DVOA ranking this year, they appear to be just as dangerous this year. They rank fifth in yards per carry (5.5) and fourth in rushing yards (177.5).

Their success in other advanced metrics seems to depend on which outlet you use: Ben Baldwin’s RBSDM or the league’s official NFL Pro.

I’m going to default to the eye test, and the eye test shows this is a physically dominant rushing attack led by James Conner, who currently ranks ninth in rushing yards after contact.

Their offensive line is a group of ragtag players, but they’re getting the job done. They rank 15th in team run blocking grade, 24th in run block win rate, and 19th in adjusted line yards.

The x-factor here is Murray. His scrambling abilities may be second to none in this league and through two games, he’s significantly up in rushing yards per game (58.0) compared to his career average (38.3). Again, though, low sample size.

The Lions run defense has been fantastic for well over a year now, and there doesn’t appear to be any signs of slowing down. For the first time this season, Detroit is expected to have their full defensive line intact after missing DJ Reader in Week 1 and Marcus Davenport in Week 2—although linebacker Alex Anzalone could be out as he continues his way through concussion protocol.

Regardless, Detroit’s run defense remains a top-10 unit in this league. They’re currently third in yards per carry allowed, 12th in EPA per rush (per NFL Pro), 10th in stuffed percentage, and fifth in adjusted line yards.

Player to watch: Murray. Whether the Lions will be able to contain Murray is the biggest question of this matchup. Last week, they did a relatively good job with Mayfield, despite him rushing for a touchdown on a designed run. You’ll generally take 39 sack yards lost vs. 34 rushing yards gained. But Murray is a different beast, and the Lions will have to be extra disciplined in their rush lanes.

Advantage: Cardinals +1. This could be the matchup that decides everything. It’s strength vs. strength, and while I was tempted to make this a draw, Murray’s special ability to get out of trouble gives Arizona the slight edge here.

Last week’s prediction:

While my score prediction was way off (34-24 Lions), I don’t feel all that bad about how I broke down the matchup. Detroit held Tampa’s run game in check, as I predicted. They had a modest advantage running the ball on offense, and Tampa had a small advantage passing the ball.

Where I suppose I missed was Detroit’s struggles passing the ball. Still, it feels like what last week’s preview missed was the Lions’ uncharacteristically bad performance in the red zone, which would have been hard to predict outside of Tampa’s strong defense there. I don’t see the need for any adjustments this week, other than maybe a very small (but growing) concern about the passing game.

In the comment section, it was hard to find anyone who picked the Buccaneers to win, but one of the few was OrangeCorduroy, whose 24-13 Buccaneers prediction was actually pretty darn close, all things considered.

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This week’s prediction:

The Lions come out with a minor +1.5 advantage, which I think accurately depicts how close this could be. It’s worth noting, too, that both teams have an advantage in both offensive matchups.

I truly think this could go either way, and it will likely depend on whose run offense/defense stands up in a strong matchup for both teams. I’ll stick with the team who has been consistently better in that facet of the game. Lions 27, Cardinals 24.